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As of March 20, 2026, the IRS had processed 77.8 million tax returns with an average refund increasing from $3,284 to $3,561.

reported by one outlet so far · Reported fact · first recorded Jul 9, 1:30 PM

Outlets disagree on this: The existing cluster reports the average tax refund increasing to $3,561 as of March 20, 2026. The Daily Signal now reports the average refund is set to exceed $3,500 citing IRS data, which is broadly consistent, but also cites cumulative refunds of $221.7 billion at the start of March—an 11% year-over-year increase—while the existing cluster cited a 13.6% increase. The figures are drawn from different points in time and may reflect different IRS reporting dates rather than a direct contradiction.

How each outlet reported it